Is it 2016 or 2026? Breaking Down The Leafs' Draft Lottery Luck
- Caitlyn Wagner
- 4 hours ago
- 4 min read
Picture this: it’s 2016. The Toronto Maple Leafs miss the playoffs for the first time in years and then get the first overall pick in the upcoming NHL Draft. The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off an incredible postseason run. The Toronto Raptors are playing the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA playoffs.
And now, exactly 10 years later, picture this: it’s 2026. The Toronto Maple Leafs miss the playoffs for the first time in years and then get the first overall pick in the upcoming NHL Draft. The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off an incredible postseason run. The Toronto Raptors are playing the Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoffs.
We don’t know about you, but this feels like Deja Vu, no?
Yes, the rumors are true… for the first time in 10 years, the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t make the playoffs, and their reward was landing the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. For a nervous team, they wouldn’t even get a first-round pick; the first overall pick seems almost unbelievable. And in a draft class as stacked as the 2026 one, we know Leafs fans are ecstatic. (I certainly am!)
The Draft
If you’re not familiar with how the NHL Draft works, we’ve got you. Essentially, it’s all about whoever has the worst record after they’re eliminated. This sounds a little odd, but it’s true – once an NHL team is eliminated, the worse their record is, the better chances they have at securing higher odds for the NHL Draft. Essentially, when a team is truly bad, they have a better shot at securing great players for the next season, in hopes of making their team great again.
Still confused? Us too. Take the Vancouver Canucks, for example. They finished last in the league at 25-49-8, but after being eliminated in March, they went 4-9-0. Because they did not do too well once they were eliminated, this, combined with their overall last-place finish, gave them a 18.5% chance to land the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
But, hold up. Chance? Is it not automatic?
No, unfortunately for Canucks fans. Though finishing at the bottom of the standings almost guarantees a team to be picked in the top 10, it does not guarantee that the last-place team will get the first overall selection. This is why they have the NHL Draft Lottery – the worst team after elimination has the highest chance, but other teams have a fighting chance as well.
This season, the Canucks had a 18.5% chance to land the first overall pick, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks with a 13.5% chance. The Toronto Maple Leafs were all the way at 8.5%, but as we all know, hockey is unpredictable, and sometimes you only need a small percentage to cling onto hope.
The Leafs’ Situation
Heading into the Draft Lottery, many Leafs fans were nervous. (Myself included!) This is because of a trade with the Boston Bruins last year – had the Leafs been 6th or below, they would have had to give that pick to Boston. This was part of the Fraser Minten and Brandon Carlo deal, and if that had happened, the Leafs, after finishing 32-36-14, wouldn’t have gotten a first-round pick at all.
Everyone was praying for just a little bit of luck – anything to not finish 5th or below. What many didn’t expect, however, was for the number on the ball dictating the first overall’s fate to be 12. This meant that, despite their mere 8.5% chance, the Toronto Maple Leafs were once again getting the first overall pick in the upcoming draft in Buffalo.
And yes, that does sound a lot like 2016. It's not only because of the Jays and Raptors seasons, but also because the last time the Leafs had first overall in Buffalo? Ten years ago, they selected "some kid" from Arizona named Auston Matthews, who you might know.
The Draft Pool
Like every year, there is an incredible pool of elite hockey players to choose from. Every year, the first team to pick has an incredibly difficult decision, but it must be done, and a lucky player will pose with their new jersey while holding up one finger.
The past few years have seen elite players such as Matthew Schaefer, Macklin Celebrini, and Connor Bedard go first overall. And while everything is still undecided, there is a lot of hype around Gavin McKenna, a Whitehorse native who played the last season in the NCAA at Penn State University. The forward accumulated 51 points through 35 games last season, and might help make up the Leafs' younger core of players like Easton Cowan and Ben Danford.
However, the draft is far from unanimous: there are also elite defencemen, something the Leafs need, such as Carson Carels. As a defenceman with the WHL’s Prince George Cougars, he amassed 73 points in 58 games, scoring 20 goals and 53 assists. There’s also Chase Reid, who plays on the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds and who has 48 points through 45 games as a defenceman.
Overall, the 2026 NHL Draft just got infinitely more interesting. The first overall pick is always exciting, but with an original six team like the Leafs picking, the possibilities of which first overall pick will join players such as John Tavares and William Nylander are endless.
(And I don’t know about the rest of Leafs Nation, but I can confidently say that 12 is officially my favourite number!)
Edited by Olivia Feldgus