From Written Off to Playoff Threats: Four Teams Exceeding Expectations This NHL Season
- karinnaleonard
- 3 hours ago
- 7 min read
Every NHL offseason feels endlessly long, with fans and analysts alike turning to preseason predictions to pass the time. Some teams are penciled into playoff spots, while others are written off before opening night even begins. But as the season unfolds, the NHL has a way of humbling expectations. As the Olympic break approaches, four teams have rewritten the narrative of their seasons, emerging as genuine threats and forcing the league to take notice.
Buffalo Sabres
After recording just 11 wins in their first 29 games, it looked like Buffalo fans were in for another long season. The Sabres’ early struggles even made their way into pop culture, with the popular show Heated Rivalry taking a shot at the team. In one scene, as the two main characters watch hockey together, Ilya remarks, “Buffalo is terrible,” prompting Shane to respond, “Yeah, and their team sucks too.”
Since that episode aired, the narrative around the Sabres has flipped completely. In December, Buffalo went on a historic run, rattling off 10 straight wins to tie their franchise record for the longest winning streak in team history. Since that streak began, the Sabres have won 18 of their last 22 games, propelling themselves into third place in the Atlantic Division.
Heated Rivalry can't take all the credit for the Sabres’ success. On December 15th, Buffalo made a major organizational change, firing general manager Kevyn Adams and quickly replacing him with Jarmo Kekäläinen. Since the move, the Sabres have taken a significant step forward. Tage Thompson has driven the offense with 27 goals and 26 assists for 53 points, while Rasmus Dahlin has been shoring up the back end with eight goals and 29 assists for 37 points. Additional contributions have come from forward Alex Tuch, who has 42 points, and summer acquisition Josh Doan, who has added 35 of his own. In one of the most impressive midseason turnarounds, the Sabres have transformed themselves into a potential playoff contender.
Detroit Red Wings
Last season, the Red Wings finished 10th in the Eastern Conference, missing the playoffs for the ninth consecutive year. Their penalty kill was dead last in the NHL and ranked as the fourth-worst in league history at just 70.1%. This season has been a completely different story. With Todd McLellan back for his first full season as Detroit's head coach, the Red Wings have thrived. They’ve posted a 32-16-5 record through 53 games for 69 points, placing them second in the Eastern Conference, just behind the Carolina Hurricanes.
Moritz Seider has been a huge reason behind the Red Wings’ success and is arguably the best two-way defenseman in the league. The franchise blueliner logs heavy minutes in all situations and, through 53 games, has recorded seven goals and 28 assists along with 76 hits and 118 shots blocked. These skills make him both a physical and offensively gifted player, with an impact that extends far beyond the stat sheet. Notably, only 43.06% of his shifts start in the offensive zone, compared with 63.19% for Cale Makar. His dominance is further reflected in NHL EDGE stats, where he ranks third in total miles skated with 193.63, trailing only Connor McDavid and Kirill Kaprizov. Seider plays on both the top power-play and penalty kill units and averages 25:25 of ice time per game, establishing himself as one of the league's true two-way defensemen.
In net, John Gibson has provided stability in his first season with Detroit, posting 21 wins in 32 starts and ranking third among NHL goaltenders in wins. He is averaging 2.62 goals against per game with a .906 save percentage. When asked to reflect on his performance thus far, Gibson said, "I’m just going out there, competing and hopefully giving the team the chance to win every night. That’s all we can do. I always want to be consistent night in and night out, and I wasn’t early in the year, and I just had to figure it out. That’s kind of what it is. But obviously, there’s still a lot of season left, and we can’t be really sitting here satisfied. We’ve got to stay hungry and just keep doing what we’re doing.”
Up front, Detroit's offense runs through Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond, and Dylan Larkin. DeBrincat leads the team in goals with 27 to go along with 26 assists, while Raymond tops the team with 40 assists and 58 points. Captain Dylan Larkin has set the tone night in and night out. As Patrick Maroon put it, "He is not letting the Detroit Red Wings miss the playoffs this year…He is so determined...Dylan Larkin is not going to be denied this year. You can see it in his play. You can see it in the Red Wings."
Courtesy of DetroitRedWings/X
Larkin has matched those words with his play, tallying 25 goals and 22 assists for 47 points. On January 21st, he delivered another defining moment by scoring the overtime winner against the Maple Leafs. The goal was the 12th overtime winner of his career, tying Sergei Fedorov for the most in Red Wings history—albeit with the caveat that Fedorov never had the chance to play 3-on-3 hockey. After years of frustration, the Red Wings may finally end their drought and bring the playoffs back to Hockeytown.
New York Islanders
After trading Brock Nelson at the 2025 deadline and moving Noah Dobson over the summer, many expected the Islanders to enter a rebuilding year. That perception shifted on May 23rd, when Mathieu Darche replaced Lou Lamoriello as general manager and executive vice president. Darche came in with a clear vision, recounting, "In the first week after I got the job, I spoke with every player on the team and I told them, ‘I’m not tearing it down'. Because this team last year had a lot of injuries, the special teams really struggled, but I think this team can make the playoffs."
With many of their star players still in their prime, Darche opted for a modern retool rather than a full teardown. In his first move as GM, he traded Dobson for forward Emil Heineman and two first-round picks in the 2025 draft, which became Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson at 16th and 17th overall, respectively. Alongside these selections, the Isles also held the coveted first overall pick, which they used to select defenseman Matthew Schaefer. Thanks to this combination of a strong core and strategic moves at the draft, the Islanders have proven they can compete this season. They currently sit third in the Metro Division with 59 points in 51 games.
Goaltending has been a key factor in their success, as Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich have combined for a .908 save percentage, helping the Islanders rank third in the league in save percentage and fifth in goals against per game at 2.77. Offensively, the Isles have benefited from the return of key players. After missing 52 games last season due to an early upper-body injury followed by a significant kneecap injury, Mathew Barzal is back this year and leads the team with 30 assists and 11 goals for 41 points. Despite missing time with a lower-body injury, Bo Horvat currently leads the team in goals with 21, earning him a spot on Team Canada’s Olympic roster. Young rookie Matthew Schaefer has added 34 points of his own and has been one of the most exciting players to watch this season. At just 18 years old, he ranks fourth among defensemen in goals with 13. Rather than taking a step back, the Islanders have surged forward and established themselves as one of the season's biggest surprises.
Pittsburgh Penguins
After a summer filled with rumors that Pittsburgh would be the only true seller, the Penguins opened the season with a bang, going 8-2-2 in October. When that hot start cooled off, many wrote them off—but the Penguins kept fighting. Now they’re not just winning, but playing solid and sustainable hockey, with everyone contributing despite a storm of injuries. Much of this is thanks to general manager Kyle Dubas, who in just a few years has completely revitalized an aging Penguins lineup while adding more talent without sacrificing the franchise’s future.
The Penguins currently sit second in the Metropolitan Division, and despite recent injuries, they’ve continued to climb through the standings. The three-headed monster of Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby remains dominant with Crosby leading the team in all scoring categories with 27 goals, 30 assists, and 57 points. His chemistry with Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust has anchored a productive top line, while offseason additions Anthony Mantha, Justin Brazeau, and Parker Wotherspoon have provided valuable depth. The fourth line of Connor Dewar, Blake Lizotte, and Noel Acciari has also been strong, out forechecking opponents nightly and highlighting just how balanced this Pittsburgh team has become.
That depth was on full display in a 6-2 win over the Seattle Kraken on January 19th, when scoring came from throughout the lineup—two goals from the fourth line, two from the defense, one from the third line, and one from the top unit—highlighting how evenly the offense has been spread. It’s the kind of production some teams can only dream of, and if you’ve watched any Penguins games this season, you know it’s become a recurring theme.
As the season has progressed, Kyle Dubas has continued to fill in the margins, most recently acquiring goaltender Stuart Skinner and forward Egor Chinakhov. Chinakhov provided an immediate spark to the lineup with his lethal shot and has quickly formed a dangerous pairing with Malkin. Meanwhile, Skinner has been excellent, going 7-1-0 over his last eight starts with just 13 goals against, a 1.63 goals-against average, and a .935 save percentage. After going a perfect 4-0-0 on their recent Seattle and Western Canada road trip, no team has more wins in 2026 than the Penguins. Simply put, this Pittsburgh team has been genuinely fun to watch all season long.
These four teams continue to prove that preseason predictions are never set in stone. From Buffalo's historic midseason turnaround to Detroit's long-awaited resurgence, New York’s refusal to undergo a full rebuild, and Pittsburgh's resilient depth, each team has earned their place in the playoff conversation. As the season continues to unfold, the Sabres, Red Wings, Islanders, and Penguins are proof that in the NHL, anything is possible.
Edited by: Kelly Cassette
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